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Life Sciences Section 4.3.17 · Building 3 · Old MacDonald Farm · College III · cross-listed College VII · Medical & Public Health The fly goes where the wound is. And the wound is wherever somebody keeps an animal.
Life Sciences · College III × VII · a barrier that held, then broke

The Front Line

Screwworms in Texas. How did they get across? They did not come across a line on a map — they came across a continent, wound by wound, and the paperwork was the only thing that ever stopped at the river. This lab is built from the federal record: 35 confirmed US animal cases, SENASICA's own wound tables, the bilateral import protocol, and a letter in which USDA's Chief Scientist concedes the whole argument.

the question · asked plainly

Screwworms in Texas. How did they get across?

The New World screwworm is a blowfly whose larvae eat living flesh. It finds an animal with an open wound, lays two to three hundred eggs at the edge of it, and the larvae burrow inward. It was eradicated from the United States in 1966 and pushed south to a barrier at the Darién Gap in Panama. In 2022 the barrier failed. In June 2026 the fly was confirmed in Texas livestock.

So: how did it get across? The honest answer is that it never treated the Rio Grande as a thing to cross. A fly does not know where Mexico ends. It knows where a wound is, and a wound is wherever somebody keeps an animal — a newborn calf with a raw navel, a goat torn on barbed wire, a dog with an ear infection. The fly goes where the wound is. The border is not a line the fly respects. It is a line the paperwork respects — and that is a real line, with real teeth, and it is in Tab IV.

Every claim on this page carries a flag in the same breath as its number. 🟢 sourced named document, quotable. 🔵 derived this lab's arithmetic, shown. 🟡 single / press one source, or a source that is not the agency. 🔴 contested two sources disagree; we print both and resolve neither. ⚪ unverified we could not source it, and we say so.
the federal ledger · recounted by hand, row by row

Thirty-five animals. Fourteen counties. Two of them touch the river.

This is not a press tally. It is the USDA APHIS New World Screwworm case ledger — one row per confirmed US animal, with a county, a date, a species and a status. 35 confirmed cases, 3 June to 10 July 2026. Every figure below was recounted from the file for this rebuild. 🟢 APHIS US detection ledger (ExportToCSV), 35 rows, exported 10 Jul 2026

35
confirmed US animal cases
14
counties · TX 34 / NM 1
11
in Crockett County alone — 31% of the entire US outbreak
40%
sheep + goats (14 of 35) 🔵

Where they actually are

CountyCasesFirst confirmedWhere it is
Crockett, TX1120 Jun 2026Trans-Pecos / Edwards Plateau. Does not touch the border. 8 of its 11 cases are sheep.
Edwards, TX69 Jun 2026Edwards Plateau. Does not touch the border.
Terrell, TX422 Jun 2026On the Rio Grande.
Zavala, TX33 Jun 2026The first US case — La Pryor. Does not touch the river.
La Salle, TX27 Jun 2026Inland South Texas.
Brewster, TX19 Jul 2026On the Rio Grande — and the westernmost pin in the file.
Pecos, TX129 Jun 2026Trans-Pecos.
Sutton, TX112 Jun 2026Edwards Plateau.
Tom Green, TX111 Jun 2026Concho Valley — San Angelo.
Uvalde · Medina · Jim Hogg · Gillespie, TX1 ea.Jun 2026South and Central Texas. None on the river.
Lea, NEW MEXICO17 Jun 2026A dog. The only case outside Texas. Now Inactive. Whether the animal was infested in the US is not in the file — the ledger has no origin field. 🔴 origin contested

🔵 derived County-by-county roll-up and the Rio Grande count are this lab's, computed from the 35 rows. Of the 14 counties, only Terrell and Brewster front the Rio Grande. Everything else is inland, and the largest cluster is hundreds of miles from the river.

The lab this page used to be ended at La Pryor, Zavala County — “about fifty miles from the border” — and treated that as the story. It was the first pin, not the shape. The shape is Crockett County: eleven cases, thirty-one percent of the entire US outbreak, in sheep, on the Edwards Plateau, nowhere near the river. The front did not creep north from the crossing. It showed up where the animals are.

What kind of animal

species · all 35 confirmed US cases
Cattle — 19 (54%)
Sheep — 10 (29%)
Goats — 4 (11%)
Dogs — 2 (6%)

Sheep and goats are 14 of the 35 — 40% of the American outbreak. 🔵 derived, 14/35 That is not what Mexico looks like: in SENASICA's federal count, cattle are 11,491 of 16,489 and sheep are 441. The US outbreak is landing disproportionately on small ruminants, and it is landing on them in the sheep-and-goat country of the Edwards Plateau. This lab does not know why, and will not invent a mechanism. It is a difference in the data, stated as one.

the wave · hard-dated first detections, south to north

The eighteen months before Texas.

Each row is a first detection with a date and a named source. Read down the column and you are watching it move.

DatePlaceEventFlag
2022N. of Darién, PANThe barrier is breached.🟡 press
Jan 2023PanamaState of emergency declared. COPEG: “In January of this year, a state of emergency was declared in Panama due to a screwworm outbreak.”🟢 COPEG
Jul 5 2023PanamaMIDA officially declares a nationwide outbreak.🟢 COPEG
~Jul 2023Costa RicaFirst case; sterile-fly release begins “by the end of that month.”🟢 COPEG
Dec 2023NicaraguaCOPEG: “In December 2023, the first case was detected in Nicaragua, prompting the start of sterile fly dispersal that same month.”🟢 COPEG
Sep 2024HondurasFirst case. Dispersal begins Oct 7; releases on the Guatemala border by end of Oct.🟢 COPEG
Belize, El SalvadorAffected; arrival dates not pinned in any source this lab holds.⚪ awaiting
Nov 21 2024Catazajá, ChiapasFirst Mexican case in 33 years. A bovine, inspected at the Federal Verification and Inspection Point. “El primer caso… se detectó el 21 de noviembre del 2024, en un bovino inspeccionado en el Punto de Verificación e Inspección Federal ubicado en el municipio de Catazajá, estado de Chiapas.” — the “33 years” is not AVANCE 04's phrase. The bulletin gives the date; the interval is this lab's, counted from Mexico's 1991 eradication decree to 2024.🟢 AVANCE 04 — the case, the date, the bovine, Catazajá 🔵 “33 years” — derived, 1991 decree → 2024
Nov 30 2024CatazajáSterile-fly dispersal begins in Mexico — nine days after the first case. 🔵 interval is this lab's🟢 COPEG
Apr 17 2025Acacoyagua, ChiapasFirst human myiasis of the outbreak — a 77-year-old woman (SE 15).🟡 press
Jun 15 2025Mexico2,214 cumulative cases — and this is a mixed total: 13 of them are humans. “Del total, 1,797 se han identificado en bovinos… 13 en humanos, 2 en felinos, 1 en búfalo de agua y 1 en un ave silvestre.” Peak week so far: SE 22, with 192.🟢 AVANCE 04, species breakdown — the 13 humans are the bulletin's own
SE 45 2025MexicoThe worst week of the outbreak — 517 cases. SENASICA: “siendo la semana epidemiológica número 45 del 2025 la que presenta más casos (517).”🟢 AVANCE 11, p.2
Dec 26 2025Llera de Canales, TamaulipasFirst case in a US-border state. Myiasis in the navel of a six-day-old calf. Reported by a vet in private practice, not by a federal inspector.🟢 AVANCE 11
Feb 4 2026Florida🔵 INTERCEPTION, not incursion. Larvae on a horse imported from Argentina, caught in an APHIS import-quarantine facility during routine inspection. This is the system working. Conflating it with an outbreak is exactly the error this lab exists to prevent.🟡 press
Feb 28 2026Mexico16,489 cumulative animal cases since Nov 2024. (Tab II is built entirely out of this number.)🟢 AVANCE 11, p.1
Jun 3 2026La Pryor, Zavala Co., TXThe first confirmed US animal case of this outbreak. What the ledger actually records: Zavala · Texas · 6/3/2026 · Domestic · Cattle · Inactive. 🟢 APHIS ledger — earliest of the 35 rows by date

The animal's age (“three-week-old”), its umbilical wound, and whether it survived are not in the ledger. The file has eight fields and none of them is age, wound, or outcome. Those three details are press-derived, they flew a green flag on this page, and the flag is now corrected to what it is. ⚪ age, wound and outcome — not in the APHIS file; press-derived; unverified against any document this lab holds
🟢 APHIS ledger ⚪ the narrative detail
Jul 10 2026TX + NM35 confirmed cases, 14 counties — the table at the top of this tab.🟢 APHIS ledger
⚠️ the 1966 benchmark, and the thing people forget

The June 2026 calf is the first US livestock incursion since 1966 — USDA's Chief Scientist confirms the 1966 date in writing: “a declaration that the continental United States was free of indigenous NWS in 1966.” 🟢 Hutchins to Miller, 25 Jun 2026, p.1

It is not the first screwworm on US soil in sixty years. The 2016–17 Florida Keys outbreak was a real, established infestation. That was ten years ago, not sixty. And it is in the federal record — in a document this lab has been quoting from all along:

“El último brote ocurrido en EUA se confirmó el 30 de septiembre de 2016… se reportó un foco con un caso en un ciervo de los cayos (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) con 143 animales susceptibles en 5 diferentes especies animales, localizado en la Isla de Big Pine Key de los Cayos de Florida, posteriormente el 20 de enero de 2017 se informó sobre un segundo foco… en el que se reportó un caso en un perro en Miami-Dade… El 11 de octubre de 2016, el equipo inició con la liberación de pupas estériles… Este evento fue la primera detección de miasis por Cochliomyia hominivorax en este país en más de 30 años; finalmente este evento cerró el 23 de marzo de 2017.”
— “The last outbreak in the USA was confirmed on 30 September 2016… one case in a Key deer… 143 susceptible animals… on Big Pine Key… a second focus… a dog in Miami-Dade… On 11 October 2016 the team began releasing sterile pupae… the first detection of C. hominivorax myiasis in this country in more than 30 years; the event closed on 23 March 2017.” 🟢 SADER/SENASICA economic study (the files/206212.pdf), 2021, pp.7–8 — verbatim

This page used to say: “no federal document in this lab's folder carries the Keys figures.” That was false, and the document was four pages from the lab's most-quoted sentence. The correction runs against this page's own interest — it restores, as sourced federal fact, an American incursion the page had shelved as unsourceable press. It goes in precisely because it costs us something. And it confirms the blind spot this lab keeps coming back to: the one time the US actually got hit, it was found in a deer.

the number a rancher wants

How fast is it moving?

~1,800
km — Catazajá (Nov 2024) → Zavala Co. TX (Jun 2026)
~18.5
months
~97
km / month, average advance

🔵 derived This lab's arithmetic, from three sourced first-detection pins: Catazajá → Llera de Canales → La Pryor. It is not a published number. It is shown with its working so you can check it — and it is an average of a straight line, which is not how a fly moves. Crockett County is the proof that it is not how a fly moves.

The screwworm is limited by cold, not by customs. ⚪ the “45th parallel” thermal limit has appeared on this page before as a USDA figure — no document in this lab's folder states it, and it is withdrawn until one does.

the instrument · SENASICA's own federal tables

The fly goes where the wound is.

Mexico's animal-health service publishes, in a fortnightly bulletin almost nobody outside Mexico reads, a table of where on the animal the maggots were found. Twenty-one rows. It is the single most useful document in this entire outbreak, because it turns an epidemic into a checklist a rancher can actually work from.

“Desde el primer caso en noviembre de 2024 y hasta el 28 de febrero de 2026 se han detectado 16,489 casos acumulados, de los cuales las especies más afectadas siguen siendo los bovinos, caninos y suinos…” “From the first case in November 2024 through 28 February 2026, 16,489 cumulative cases have been detected, of which the most affected species remain cattle, dogs and swine…” — Armando García López, Director de la CPA · AVANCE 11, Boletín Informativo de la CPA, Gusano Barrenador del Ganado, SENASICA, March 2026, p.1 🟢 sourced

Sixteen thousand four hundred and eighty-nine. It is a cumulative figure — every case since the first one, not a snapshot of today. Hold that word. It is the whole discipline of this tab, and it is where this lab's ninth error lived.

SENASICA gives that number three different ways: by wound location, by species, and by state. Three tables, three completely different cuts of the same outbreak. All three sum to exactly 16,489 — checked to the unit, by hand, for this rebuild. 🔵 the three sums are this lab's check That is what a real dataset does, and it is why you can trust the shape of it.

THE WOUND TABLE · 16,489 cases, three ways · AVANCE 11 (SENASICA/CPA), cumulative to 28 Feb 2026
4,297
largest single cause — navel of a newborn
16,489
rows shown · sums to the federal total
1,356
wounds made by husbandry 🔵
Half of it is a newborn's navel and a wire fence.
Navel of a newborn (4,297) plus trauma wounds (4,124) plus barbed wire (1,494) is 9,915 of 16,489 — 60% of every case in Mexico. None of that is exotic. It is a calf being born and an animal walking into a fence.

Every bar above is a verbatim figure from AVANCE 11: wound table p.7, species table p.2, state table p.6. (This page cited the state table to “pp.6–7” for three versions. All twenty state rows are on p.6; p.7 is the wound table. Corrected.) 🟢 sourced, all three tables Nothing here is interpolated, smoothed, or modelled. The only thing this lab added is the arithmetic, and the arithmetic is on screen.

the four rows we cause

Fourteen hundred of them are wounds we made on purpose.

Read down the wound table and four rows are not accidents. Aretado (ear-tagging) 546 · descorne (dehorning) 474 · marcaje (branding) 204 · castración (castration) 132. Total: 1,356. 🔵 derived — the four rows are SENASICA's; the sum is this lab's

Those are husbandry. They are things a person did to an animal with a tool, on a day they chose, in a place they chose. Which means they are the part of this outbreak that is schedulable — the one column where the answer is not “more flies.”

What the plan actually prescribes, and it is only the second half of that: “polvo curativo (sobre con 5 gramos de coumafos al 5%) y dar una segunda aplicación al tercer día” — curative dust, 5 g of 5% coumaphos, second application on the third day. Treat the wound. 🟢 Plan de Emergencia GBG (SENASICA/DGSA/CPA, 2024) — verbatim

The other half — “not in fly season” — is this page's, and it was flying Mexico's flag. Until this correction the page wrote “not in fly season, and treat the wound when you do — Mexico's own emergency plan says so,” under a single 🟢. The plan does not say so. It was searched for época, temporada and estacional and it contains no seasonal-scheduling guidance of any kind. The 🟢 covered the powder. It never covered the calendar. Timing husbandry away from peak fly activity is a sensible inference and it may well be good advice — but it is not in the document, so it does not get the document's flag. ⚪ “not in fly season” — this lab's inference; no source in this lab's folder states it

⚠️ a coincidence, named as one — because this is exactly where a lab invents a finding

546 + 474 + 204 + 132 = 1,356. And pelea entre congéneres — animals fighting each other — is also exactly 1,356.

It is a coincidence. It means nothing. Two unrelated sums in a twenty-one-row table landed on the same integer, and if this page had noticed it a week earlier it would probably have built a paragraph on it. It is printed here as a coincidence, in the same breath as the number, so that nobody — including this lab — can quietly promote it into a finding later.

the wildlife hole

Three wild animals. In sixteen thousand cases.

Of 16,489 confirmed cases, SENASICA records 3 in fauna silvestre — wildlife — and 1 in a lagomorph. Four. 🟢 AVANCE 11 species table

Nobody believes there are only three infested wild animals in Mexico. What that row measures is not wildlife infestation. It measures surveillance — and surveillance is a rancher noticing a wound on an animal he owns. Nobody owns a deer. The number is a detection artifact, and it is the loudest silence in the dataset. 🔵 this reading is the lab's comment, clearly labelled as comment — SENASICA says only what the count is

The 2016–17 Florida Keys outbreak is the counter-test: the one time the United States actually got an established infestation, it was found in a deer — a ciervo de los cayos, Odocoileus virginianus clavium, on Big Pine Key — because somebody was counting deer. 🟢 206212 (22pp), pp.7–8 · sourced for this correction — see Tab I

the number that has no unit

The “active case” series is gone, and it is not coming back.

⚪ permanently unsourceable — and this is a category error, not a data gap

Earlier versions of this lab carried a six-row table of Mexican “active cases” — 1,145 · 492 · 733 · 1,689 · 2,024 · 1,953 — flagged ⚪ unverified, with an action item: go and pull the raw SENASICA weekly reports.

The action item has now been executed. The raw SENASICA bulletins were pulled, opened and searched. They came back empty — and they came back empty in a way that ends the question.

The phrase “casos activos” appears in no SENASICA document this lab holds. The CPA bulletins report only cumulative casescasos acumulados, counted forward from the first case, never a point-in-time active figure. There is no active-case series to check the numbers against, because SENASICA does not publish one.

So “Jun 3 = 2,024” has no source and no unit. It is a number in a category the source system does not have. That is not a gap in the evidence. That is a category error — and a number with no unit is not a number. The series has been deleted from this lab rather than kept under a flag.

Sid Miller, Texas Commissioner of Agriculture, cited “approximately 1,950 active screwworm cases… the highest number reported since the current outbreak began” on 23 June 2026. USDA's Chief Scientist, given a direct opportunity to confirm it two days later, did not. ⚪ Miller-asserted, USDA-unconfirmed, SENASICA-unsourceable It is printed here as a thing a politician said, and nothing more.

What replaces it: two cumulative points, both federal, both quotable — and not in the same unit

2,214
cumulative cases to 15 Jun 2025a MIXED total: 13 of these are humans 🟢 AVANCE 04
16,489
cumulative animal cases to 28 Feb 2026no human row in the species table 🟢 AVANCE 11
7.4×
growth in about 8.5 months 🔵
⚠️ the fourth time this page has broken on a unit — and it broke it in the sentence where it claimed unit purity

Until this correction this page called the 2,214 “cumulative animal cases” and called the 2,214 → 16,489 comparison “comparing like with like.” It is not like with like, and AVANCE 04 says so on its own page 3, in its own itemisation:

“Del total, 1,797 se han identificado en bovinos, 131 en equinos, 131 en caninos, 87 en porcinos, 43 en ovinos, 6 en caprinos, 13 en humanos, 2 en felinos, 1 en búfalo de agua y 1 en un ave silvestre.” 🟢 AVANCE 04 — verbatim

Thirteen humans sit inside the 2,214. AVANCE 11's 16,489 species table has no human row at all — it was searched for one, and there is none. So the earlier point is a mixed animal-and-human total and the later point is animal-only. Two different denominators, presented as one unit, under the banner “like with like,” in the tab whose entire subject is that a number with the wrong unit is not a number. The phrase is gone.

And the arithmetic does not close, so this page will not pretend it does. 🔵 this lab's own sum, and it is the reason no clean animal-only figure is printed above Add the bulletin's ten itemised rows — 1,797 + 131 + 131 + 87 + 43 + 6 + 13 + 2 + 1 + 1 — and you get 2,212, not 2,214. SENASICA's own breakdown is two cases short of SENASICA's own total. So the animal-only figure is either 2,201 (the stated total minus the 13 humans) or 2,199 (the itemised animal rows, summed). This lab does not know which, because the document does not say, and it will not manufacture the difference to make a rounder number.

What survives: the contamination is 13 in 2,214 — 0.6% — and it does not move the 7.4×. 🔵 16,489 ÷ 2,214 = 7.45; ÷ 2,201 = 7.49. Either way it rounds to 7.4–7.5×. The growth claim holds. The unit claim did not, and the unit claim was the one this page was bragging about.

Two points, from two bulletins, from the same agency — and this page is no longer entitled to say they are in the same unit. They are both cumulative, which is the discipline that matters here and the reason the active-case series had to go. But one of them counts people and the other does not, and that is stated in the same breath as the number, where it belongs.

the humans · a different agency entirely

And a majority of the human cases cannot be explained by animals.

The human myiasis figures do not come from SENASICA. They come from the Secretaría de Salud, Dirección General de Epidemiología, in a monthly bulletin with a different denominator and a different cut-off. Two agencies, two systems. This lab spent three rounds mixing them up.

FigureValueSource
Human myiasis, 2025 full year164 probable / 117 confirmed (71%)🟢 Salud/DGE Informe mensual No. 4, p.5
Through SE 4 of 202625 probable / 17 confirmed (68%)🟢 Salud/DGE Informe mensual No. 2, p.5 — exact, to the digit
Through SE 13 of 2026189 probable / 112 confirmed (59%)🟢 Salud/DGE Informe mensual No. 4, p.5 — exact, to the digit
Hospitalised76% of confirmed cases🟢 Informe No. 4, p.9
Reported NO animal contact54% — a majority🟢 Informe No. 4, p.7
Demographics72% male · 61% over 60 · mean age 54 (range 12–93)🟢 Informe No. 4, pp.6–7
Leading state, cumulative 2025–SE13 2026Chiapas 120 of 229 (52%) · Yucatán 23 · Oaxaca 20 · Veracruz 14🟢 Informe No. 4, Table 1
54% of confirmed human cases reported no contact with animals. That is a majority the livestock-exposure model does not explain, and it is an open epidemiological question stated as one. And the confirmation rate is falling as volume rises — 71% → 68% → 59%. That could be broadened case definitions under emergency conditions, or looser reporting, or something real. Flag the signal. Do not name the cause.

Two things this lab used to print here, and no longer does. ⚪ “Cumulative to Mar 20, 2026 — 204” — the bulletin's nearest figure is 229, across 12 states. A near-miss is not a source. ⚪ “295 YTD by Jun 16” and “Veracruz 69”each Salud bulletin prints its own cut-off on every table, and they are two different dates: Informe No. 2 prints “fecha de corte 01 de febrero”; Informe No. 4 prints “fecha de corte 04 de abril de 2026.” The later of the two is April. An April document cannot source a June row. Both figures are withdrawn. 🟢 both cut-offs read off the tables, this correction — and until this correction this page asserted that both bulletins said April. One says February. That false quotation is logged in the audit trail.

the finding · and it is not the one this lab kept looking for

No government has published a required weekly figure for this front. The literature has — and it is a tenth of what this page once drew.

The way to fight this fly is to flood the sky with sterilised males. Females mate once in a lifetime; if she mates with a sterile male, her eggs never hatch. It is a brilliant technique and it works. It has one input: flies. So the obvious question — the one every version of this lab has tried to answer — is: how many flies a week does it take?

No government in this corpus has said. Not USDA, in its facility register or in four pages of signed correspondence from its Chief Scientist. Not COPEG, in its own institutional history. Not SENASICA, in fourteen months of fortnightly bulletins. Not even Mexico's national emergency plan for this exact pest — a document whose entire purpose is to state what the country will need. Every sterile-fly figure any government publishes here is a capacity or a release rate.

But the corpus is not empty of requirements, and this page said it was. “There is not one requirement in it” stood in this spine for three versions. It is false, and it is disproved by a paper this page already cites, quotes twice, and stands on.

“Indeed, in order to undertake the eradication of screwworms in a large Caribbean island such as Cuba, the mass production of insects required at the COPEG facility is estimated at approximately 50 million insects per week.— Concha, C. et al. (2016), BMC Biology 14:72, Discussion, printed page 8 of 13 (the folio in the page footer: “Concha et al. BMC Biology (2016) 14:72 — Page 8 of 13”) 🟢 sourced — verbatim, and the folio read off the footer for this correction. This page cited it to p.9 seven times. It is on p.8. See error 16.

That is a requirement. In insects. Per week. Costed, and published. And it carries its own caveats, which ride with it and are not optional: it is not a government figure — it is a 2016 peer-reviewed cost model, not a federal demand. And it is costed for the wrong country — it prices the production needed at COPEG to eradicate the screwworm from Cuba, not to hold the Darién barrier, not for Mexico, and not for Texas. 🟡 2016 cost model · scoped to a Cuba campaign · not a present-day federal requirement for this front

It is not a target and it does not go on the chart. It is printed here as a fact with its provenance, because it exists and this page said nothing like it existed. Turning it into a new red line would be the same crime as the last red line, committed by a lab that had just apologised for it.

🚩 the reframe — and it is the real finding of this lab

This page invented a 500-million-a-week requirement and built three versions of a chart to fall short of it. The only costed weekly requirement anyone in this record has ever actually published is Concha's — and it is 50 million. One tenth of the invented number.

Pacora alone produces about 100 million sterile flies a week, in USDA's own present tense. 🟢 screwworm.gov p.2 One plant, on its own, puts out roughly twice the only weekly requirement the literature has ever costed — and that requirement was costed for a whole-island eradication campaign. 🔵 100M vs 50M — this comparison is this lab's, and it spans two documents, two purposes and ten years. It is a scale check. It is not an equation.

And the barrier broke anyway.

So it was never a capacity story. Not at 500M. Not at 128M. Not at 98M. Every version of the axis — including the version where this lab deleted the axis and congratulated itself — was chasing the wrong question. The number was never the finding. The number was the thing standing where the finding should have been.

“Las cantidades de pupas estériles a solicitar dependerán de las necesidades de la Campaña en México y la capacidad de producción de la planta de Panamá, este material biológico se podrá utilizar para ser dispersado de acuerdo al material con que se cuente al momento…” “The quantities of sterile pupae to be requested will depend on the needs of the Campaign in Mexico and the production capacity of the Panama plant; this biological material may be used for dispersal according to whatever material is available at the time…” Plan de Emergencia para hacer frente a la presencia de Gusano Barrenador del Ganado, SENASICA / DGSA / CPA, Ciudad de México, 2024, p.36 🟢 sourced

Read what it actually says — and read the conjunction. Mexico's federal emergency plan for the screwworm, written in 2024, before the first case, says the quantity of sterile pupae it will request depends on two things: the needs of the Campaign in Mexico and the production capacity of the Panama plant. Need and capacity. Both. That is what the Spanish says, and this page is not entitled to half of it.

The true claim is smaller, and it is enough: the plan acknowledges a need and then never names a number for it. No quantity, no timeline, no budget. It is a document that says the requirement exists and declines, in the same sentence, to state it.

🚩 a correction against this page's own interest

For three versions this page glossed that sentence as “the quantity is whatever Panama can make… it is not a plan to meet a need,” and said the plan admitted as much “in as many words.” It does not. It says need AND capacity. The gloss deleted half of a conjunction the page had just translated correctly one paragraph above, and then indicted the document for the half it had deleted. The document is less damning than this page made it. That is the finding, and it goes in.

The absence is real, and it is narrower than this page kept saying. A page can be built against a target. It cannot be built against a target no government has set. This chart has no line to cross — not because no number exists anywhere, but because no government has published one for this front, and the one number the literature has costed belongs to a different country and a different job.
what actually exists · production and dispersal, kept apart

The capacity ledger.

Production means rearing, sterilising and making flies. Dispersal means receiving sterile pupae, hatching them, and dropping them out of an aeroplane. A dispersal facility makes no flies at all. USDA keeps two separate registers, and confusing them has broken this page more than once — so every row below is labelled with which of the two it is, and the interactive will not let them add together.

THE CAPACITY LEDGER · every published weekly figure, and no target line
100M
published production capacity / wk
200M+
published dispersal capacity / wk
~70M
flies actually released / wk 🟢
required / wk — no government has published one
One plant. It is in Panama.
USDA: Pacora is “the only NWS sterile fly production facility currently in operation in North America.” Everything else on this chart either drops Panama's flies or is still a building site.

There is no red line on this chart, and there never will be. No government has published a required weekly figure for this front, so there is nothing to draw. And the one costed weekly requirement that does exist in the record — Concha 2016's 50M/wk — is deliberately not drawn here, because it is a 2016 cost model for eradicating the fly from Cuba, and putting it on this axis would make it a target it never was. 🟡 printed as a fact in the spine above, with its provenance; refused as a line The fourth readout is a dash. That dash is what a government requirement looks like when nobody wrote one.

FacilityTypeStatusPublished figureFlag
Pacora, Panama (COPEG)Production + dispersalOperational“The facility produces and disperses approximately 100 million sterile flies per week.” — in flies, present tense, produced and dispersed.🟢 screwworm.gov p.2, mod. 11 Jun 2026
Pacora — the same plant, per MexicoProductionOperational“Tiene capacidad para producir de 90 millones de moscas estériles por irradiación atómica semanalmente.”90M, not 100M. Two federal governments, one plant, two numbers. We print both.🔴 Plan de Emergencia p.35 vs. USDA
Metapa, ChiapasProduction (per USDA)Construction“USDA is investing $21 million to help renovate and convert an existing fruit fly facility… expected to produce an additional 60–100 million sterile NWS flies per week… as early as summer 2026.” It is a range. It stays a range.🟢 screwworm.gov p.2
Metapa — per Mexico's own planDispersal support“lugar donde se recibirán las pupas estériles, procedentes de Panamá, para su acondicionamiento, previo a la dispersión — a conditioning and packing centre for pupae flown in from Panama. Mexico's 2024 plan does not give Metapa a production role at all. USDA's $21M conversion is a later, different plan — but this is a live production-vs-dispersal ambiguity in Mexico's own words.🔴 Plan de Emergencia p.36
Metapa — floor area3,000 m² vs 22,000 sq ft. Irreconcilable, and no square footage appears in any federal document this lab holds.🔴 unresolved
Moore Air Base, TXProductionConstruction“a projected capacity of 300 million sterile flies per week… This will be the only U.S.-based sterile fly production facility.” USDA gives it no date. None.🟢 screwworm.gov p.3
Moore Air Base, TXDispersalOperationalConstruction is complete on a sterile fly dispersal facility… capable of dispersing up to 100 million sterile flies per week.” Two Moores. One is finished; one is a building site. Reading the first as the second is how this lab invented a milestone that does not exist.🟢 screwworm.gov p.4
Tuxtla Gutiérrez, ChiapasDispersalOperational“In April 2025, APHIS agreed to partner with SENASICA to construct a permanent sterile fly dispersal facility… capacity to disperse up to 100 million sterile flies per week. Sterile pupae are transported from the COPEG production facility in Panama, hatched into adult flies at the Tuxtla site, and then released…”🟢 screwworm.gov p.3
Tampico, MexicoDispersalOperational (Nov 2025)“allows USDA to disperse sterile flies aerially across northeastern Mexico, including in Nuevo Leon.” No capacity figure is published. A dispersal site with no number is a real thing, and the chart draws it as one.⚪ no figure published
What is actually going out of the door“se están liberando semanalmente cerca de 70 millones de moscas estériles vía aérea…”~70 million sterile flies released weekly, aerially. ⚠️ This sentence sits inside AVANCE 11's article on the northeastern emergency operation (Tamaulipas / San Luis Potosí / northern Veracruz), March 2026. SENASICA does not state it as a national total, and neither does this lab.🟢 AVANCE 11 p.35 — with its scope
the plant that could do it · and the two things nobody says about it

Mexico built a 500-million-a-week plant. In 1976.

“En 1976, se construyó una planta nueva para la producción de adultos machos estériles en Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chiapas, con capacidad de producción de 500 millones de moscas estériles por semana.” “In 1976, a new plant was built for the production of sterile adult males in Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chiapas, with a production capacity of 500 million sterile flies per week.” — SADER/SENASICA-family economic study of the GBG (file 206212.pdf), c. Jan 2021, p.5 🟢 sourced — verbatim, checkable, verified for this rebuild

It is a real sentence in a real federal document and it is this lab's best line. It is also a capacity rating for one plant in 1976 — a nameplate, not a need. The same paragraph rates it in “moscas estériles” (sterile flies) while describing it as a plant for “adultos machos estériles” (sterile adult males). The single most quoted sentence in this lab mixes the two units in one breath. Nobody gets to cash it as a target.

🚩 what this lab used to say here, and why it is gone

This page carried, for three versions, a chart whose whole purpose was to fall short of a 500-million-a-week requirement. A red line. A −400M deficit. “20% of need.” And the sentence: “the same amount used to erase screwworm from the US.”

The requirement does not exist. The 500M is a 1976 Mexican plant's rated capacity, quoted in a 2021 economic retrospective. It was never a US figure and never a requirement. The clause about erasing screwworm from the US was false, and the page's own timeline refuted it — US eradication is credited to the Mission, Texas plant, and no document in this lab's folder states what Mission produced per week. ⚪ the “~150M/wk” figure this page used to print for Mission is unsourced and is withdrawn

The entire apparatus is deleted — the red line, the deficit, the percentage-of-need, and every verdict string that inherited from them. What is left is a ledger of what exists. It is less dramatic. It is true.

And two things about that plant that cut against this lab

🔴 contested · when did it end?
2012 — or 2006?

This page has said 2012, and explicitly rejected 2006 as “an earlier draft's error.” Its own best source says 2006.

“se estableció una nueva planta productora de moscas estériles en Pacora, Panamá, en el año 2006, la cual reemplazó la planta de Chiapas, México — “a new plant was established at Pacora, Panama, in 2006, which replaced the Chiapas plant.🟢 206212, p.6

The same document dates the treaty's end to 26 Sep 2012 and COMEXA's formal extinction to 21 May 2013 (DOF). A treaty ending is not a plant closing, and this page fused the two. The date is contested. Both readings are printed. Neither is resolved — and the earlier draft was closer to the record than the correction that overruled it.

🟢 sourced · and it is not flattering
The plant caused an outbreak.

“durante el año 2003, la activación del programa de emergencia por un brote en 12 municipios del Estado de Chiapas derivados de una falla en la planta de moscas estériles, y la consecuente liberación de especímenes fértiles, repercutió en la inversión de 17.5 millones de pesos en tan solo cinco meses.”

“In 2003, the emergency programme was activated for an outbreak in 12 municipalities of Chiapas, stemming from a failure at the sterile-fly plant and the consequent release of fertile specimens — costing 17.5 million pesos in five months.🟢 206212, p.9

The plant this lab has been eulogising once seeded an outbreak by releasing fertile flies. It was omitted from every previous version. It goes in because it cuts the other way.

The chain, sourced end to end: Mission, Texas closed January 1981 and “las acciones de la planta de Chiapas, remplazaron las de la antigua planta de Misión, Texas” — Chiapas replaced Mission. 🟢 206212 p.5 Then Pacora replaced Chiapas in 2006. 🟢 206212 p.6 Three plants, one at a time, each one further from the United States than the last. That is the whole institutional history of North American sterile-fly production, and it is a story about consolidation, not about capacity.

the honest ceiling

What was actually being made, when the barrier broke.

80M
pupae produced / wk — COPEG's own 2024 telemetry
70.5M
flies released / wk — COPEG, Q1 2024
806,748,143
sterile flies released in Q1 2024 — an exact count, over 212 flights

🟢 COPEG 2024 programme infographic Pupae produced and flies released are different numbers, and COPEG keeps them apart. So does this lab, now. 🔵 806,748,143 ÷ 212 flights ≈ 3.8 million flies per flight — that division is this lab's

And the number that reframes the whole question: Concha et al. (2016), working inside the COPEG facility, costed the plant's routine barrier work at 16 million sterile insects a week.

An estimation of the weekly costs of producing 16 million sterile insects for the regular operations of the COPEG mass rearing facility is shown in Additional file 4. Production costs represent about 20 % of the total costs of the New World screwworm control program.” — Concha, C. et al. (2016), BMC Biology 14:72, Discussion 🟡 this is a COST-ESTIMATE sentence, not an operational report

Represented at the paper's own confidence, and no higher. It is a sentence about what it cost to produce 16 million insects for regular operations — not a statement that the barrier was held with 16 million flies a week, and not a claim that anything caused anything.

The same paper, on the same page, gives the facility's ceiling. Here is what it actually says, and it is worth reading against what this page used to put in quotation marks:

“Further, the higher efficiency of field population suppression derived from a male-only strain could also increase the relative maximal production capacity of the mass-rearing facility, which is currently estimated at 100 million insects per week.— Concha et al. (2016), BMC Biology 14:72, Discussion, printed page 8 of 13the same page, the same column, twelve lines below the 50-million sentence above 🟢 verbatim, folio checked
🚩 a fabricated quotation, on a page about verification — the worst defect available

Until this correction, this page printed that ceiling as “approximately 100 million insects per week” inside quotation marks, attributed to Concha 2016. That string is not in the paper. The word approximately was imported from a different sentence — the 50-million requirement sentence, twelve lines above it in the same column. The page reached into the paragraph, took the ceiling, took a word off the requirement, and left the requirement itself behind. Both errors ran the same way, and it is the same paragraph.

The arithmetic between 16M and 100M is inviting. This lab has been burned by inviting arithmetic and will not do it here. The paper is from 2016. The barrier broke in 2022. Six years is a long time, and the paper does not connect them. Neither will we.

the fly that would double it

NovoFly.

USDA's Agricultural Research Service has a new strain. It is not a gene drive. It is a male-only strain — the same lever Concha et al. described in 2016, when they modelled a fourfold reduction in the required release from a male-only line. That fourfold is a modelled figure and the paper says so itself: its calculations are “hypothetical and based on the behavior of the transgenic sexing strains in the laboratory.” 🟡 Concha 2016 — the paper's own hedge, and it travels with the number. It is not multiplied into any total on this page.

“a new and novel strain of NWS that produces ONLY male flies when mass produced… it has already been approved for field trials in Panama and for immediate release in Texas once production conversion specifications are finalized. The NovoFly™ will revolutionize the SIT fly production dynamic by doubling availability of sterile males. It will also eliminate the inefficiency of releasing both male and female sterile flies.” — Scott H. Hutchins, Ph.D., USDA Chief Scientist, to Commissioner Sid Miller, 25 June 2026, p.3 🟢 verbatim

Three things this lab used to get wrong about it, all now corrected from USDA's own letter: it is not a gene drive. The “doubling” is USDA's own word, not this lab's assumption. And USDA names no EPA gate for it anywhere in four pages — while discussing EPA at length for a different product. The gate USDA names is “once production conversion specifications are finalized,” and it gives no date for that either.

⚠️ the unit caution, and it is not pedantry

USDA's doubling is in sterile males. Every capacity figure on this page is in flies. No source this lab holds says whether those are the same unit — and the 1976 Tuxtla sentence, which is the one document that touches both, mixes them itself. So the doubling is printed, and it is not multiplied into any total on this page. An unresolved unit is left unresolved. That is what the flag is for.

the border, as a document

The line the fly ignores is the line the cattle can't cross.

In December 2024 — a fortnight after the first Mexican case — APHIS and SENASICA signed a nine-page bilingual protocol. It is the most consequential document in this entire story and almost nobody has read it. It is the reason the border closes. Every closure you have seen in the news since is not a decision somebody made. It is a contract executing.

Source for this entire tab: APHIS-SENASICA New World Screwworm Protocol for the Importation of Ruminants from Mexico to the United States · APHIS + SENASICA, bilateral, fully bilingual, 9 pp., December 2024. Every term below was checked against the document for this rebuild. 🟢 sourced throughout

§1 — The trigger. Same day. Automatic.

“SENASICA will immediately (same day) notify APHIS if NWS is confirmed within Mexico.”

“APHIS will implement an immediate, temporary suspension of cattle imports into the United States, until Mexico is able to determine the scope of the situation and the degree of incursion.” — Protocol, §1.a–b

Cattle already queued at the border “would not be eligible for entry.” The suspension is not a political act. It is a pre-agreed contractual trigger, signed by both governments in December 2024, and it fires the day a case is confirmed. When a US politician announces a border closure for screwworm, he is announcing that a form was filed.

§2 — Reopening is graduated, and it is two-tier

Imports resume “in accordance with existing APHIS requirements for importation of ruminants from screwworm-affected regions (9 CFR 93.405).” And not everywhere at once:

TierPortsThe rule, verbatim
Open firstNogales · Douglas · Santa Teresa · Columbus · Presidio“Initially, cattle imports may only resume at ports with AIFs located on the Mexican side of the border… so that any infested animals detected during the inspection process remain in Mexico.
ConditionalLaredo · Eagle Pass · Del Rio · Pharr / Hidalgo“Resumption of cattle imports at SBPs where APHIS inspection occurs on the U.S. side… will be contingent upon demonstrated effectiveness of the NWS protocol in preventing presentation of wounded and infested cattle at SBPs with inspection on the Mexican side.”
Read the logic and it is beautiful, and it is brutal. The five ports that open first are the ones where the American inspector stands on Mexican soil. If he finds a maggot, the animal has not entered the United States — it never left Mexico. The four big Texas crossings, where the inspection happens on the US side, stay shut until the protocol has proved itself somewhere else. The border is not one line. It is nine, and they have different ratings.

§3 — What has to happen to one cow

3–5 days before
Inspect and dose

An approved MVRA (Médico Veterinario Responsable Autorizado) inspects every animal in the lot for wounds and signs of infestation, and treats each one with injectable ivermectin or an APHIS-approved equivalent.

any visible wound
Out of the lot

“Any animal with any visible wounds is not eligible for export… The approved MVRA will immediately treat the wounds with a solution of coumaphos dust at a concentration of 3 percent active ingredient. Suspected infestation goes to CENAPA, the national reference lab.

24 hours before
A second inspection

An approved official veterinarian — SENASICA, state government, or the Comité de Fomento y Protección Pecuaria — fully re-inspects every animal in the export lot. Then APHIS inspects at the port. Three inspections, three different people.

the certificate
Five days, and no more

“The MVRA NWS Inspection and Treatment Certificate will be valid for no more than 5 days after treatment.” The paperwork has a shelf life shorter than the parasite's egg stage.

§3.b–c — And when a facility does find one: the clock is the fly's

30
days on concrete“at least 1 biological cycle”
90
days on dirt pens“at least 3 biological cycles”
90
days at the herd of origin, after confirmed infestation
The unit of law is the screwworm's life cycle. One biological cycle equals thirty days — and the protocol says so, in both languages, in a bilateral instrument between two national governments. A concrete pad you can hose down; you wait one cycle. Dirt you cannot; you wait three. Two governments wrote the fly's reproductive biology into an import regulation and then counted in it.

§3.a.vii — The sentence that shuts a country

Falsification of any part of the screwworm certificate will result in suspension of the MVRA from any NWS-related export, in addition to the suspension of the UPP or the CAE related, as well as suspension of all cattle exports from Mexico while SENASICA investigates the incident.” — Protocol, §3.a.vii 🟢 verbatim, checked

One veterinarian forges one certificate, and every cow in Mexico stops moving north. Not that veterinarian's herd. Not that state. All cattle exports from Mexico. It is the single most extraordinary sentence in this entire corpus, it is a live clause in a signed bilateral protocol, and until this rebuild this lab did not know it existed.

Non-compliance with the record-keeping rules alone suspends export activity at a facility for “a minimum of 30 days (1 biological cycle).” And if a pre-export facility and an APHIS facility share a site, a detection at one “would result in concurrent closure” of the other. The whole document is built out of cascades.

So: how did they get across? A fly crossed a river, because it is a fly. Everything else in this story — the closures, the queues at Laredo, the cattle standing in pens for ninety days — happened because two governments wrote it down in advance and then the thing they wrote it down for happened. The fly did not respect the border. The border is doing precisely what it was drafted to do.
the thing that held for twenty years

There was a wall. It was made of flies.

The Darién Gap is the narrowest place in the Americas — a hundred-odd kilometres of jungle between Panama and Colombia with no road through it. From 1994 the United States and Panama ran a commission there, COPEG, whose entire job was to fly sterile flies over that gap, week after week, for twenty-eight years, so that the screwworm could not walk back up the isthmus.

YearEventFlag
1966The United States is declared free of indigenous screwworm; the first biological barrier is established on the Mexican border.🟢 COPEG + USDA
1981The Mission, Texas plant closes (January). “Las acciones de la planta de Chiapas, remplazaron las de la antigua planta de Misión, Texas.” Chiapas takes over.🟢 206212 p.5
1991Mexico declares Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Quintana Roo and Yucatán free of the screwworm by decree.🟢 206212 p.5
1994
+ 1998
COPEG is established — the Panama–United States Commission for the Eradication and Prevention of Screwworm Infestation in Livestock. “in 1994, the agreement was signed… The eradication efforts officially began in 1998.” Two dates, two events.🟢 COPEG
1966–2004The eradication ladder, north to south: United States 1966 · Mexico 1991 · Guatemala 1994 · Belize 1995 · El Salvador 1995 · Honduras 1996 · Nicaragua 1998 · Costa Rica 2000 · Panama 2004.🟢 COPEG eradication map
2006Pacora, Panama opens“la cual reemplazó la planta de Chiapas, México… es la única planta en el mundo dedicada a la producción masiva de moscas estériles de Gusano Barrenador del Ganado.” The only such plant in the world. Sited deliberately in a place the worm has not been eradicated, so that an accidental release of fertile flies would not land in clean country.🟢 206212 p.6
2022THE BARRIER IS BREACHED. The fly gets north of the Darién. The figures this page used to print for the scale of that breach — “~25/yr → 6,500+/yr” — appear in no document this lab holds, and are withdrawn.⚪ the breach is real; the numbers were not sourced

Note what COPEG's own official history does not contain. Its dated timeline runs 1966 · 1994 · 2006 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025 — it jumps straight from 2006 to 2023. The entire barrier-maintenance era is a blank in the commission's own memory, and 2012 sits inside that blank. This lab once printed that the Chiapas plant closed “against the protests of COPEG.” ⚪ that clause rests on a single secondary source, COPEG's own history does not carry it, and it is withdrawn from the body of this page. It was the most rhetorically useful phrase here. That is exactly why it had to go.

the concession · and it is the whole argument

USDA's Chief Scientist wrote it down.

On 23 June 2026 the Texas Commissioner of Agriculture wrote to Washington to say the strategy was failing. Two days later the Chief Scientist of the United States Department of Agriculture wrote back — four pages, point by point, cc'd to the Secretary of Agriculture and the White House Chief of Staff. In the middle of a letter written to disagree with a critic, he conceded this:

“As you have correctly pointed out, our present temporary limitation with SIT is the availability of sterile male flies. — Scott H. Hutchins, Ph.D., Under Secretary for Research, Education & Economics; Chief Scientist, USDA → Commissioner Sid Miller, 25 June 2026, p.3 🟢 verbatim

That is this lab's entire thesis, granted in writing by the agency the lab is arguing about. Note the framing — “as you have correctly pointed out” — USDA agreeing with a critic on the record. And note “temporary.” He concedes the limitation and insists on its impermanence in the same clause, and names no date.

He concedes it twice more, structurally:

“…our strategy is full out eradication in the U.S. and, as our sterile fly production permits, further south to the original containment zone at the Darién Gap.” — Hutchins, p.2 🟢 verbatim
“The Department has current sterile fly production at the Panama-United States Commission for the Eradication and Prevention of Screwworm (COPEG) facility in Panama and has redeployed these sterile flies to the U.S.— Hutchins, p.2 🟢 verbatim
Panama's flies are being pulled north. That much is USDA's own sentence, above: COPEG's flies “redeployed… to the U.S.” 🟢 Hutchins p.2

And COPEG says something adjacent from the other end, in its own history — here it is in full, including the half this page used to cut: “Sterile fly releases were suspended in the rest of Central America to concentrate efforts in Tuxtla, Mexico, with the objective of establishing a biological barrier in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. 🟢 COPEG, 2025 — verbatim

There is one plant. It cannot cover Central America, Mexico and Texas at once. Both operators have now said so, in their own words, in the present tense.
🚩 a sentence this page used to print, and what was wrong with it

For three versions the line above ended: “The Darién barrier is being stripped to defend Texas.” Bolded. Unflagged. It is a composite of two documents, and it is stronger than either of them.

COPEG does not say Darién, and it does not say Texas. It says “the rest of Central America” — and the destination it names is a new barrier at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, in southern Mexico. Hutchins is the one who says the flies went “to the U.S.” The page welded COPEG's suspension to USDA's redeployment, swapped in the more evocative place-name at each end, and produced a sentence neither agency wrote.

What the two documents jointly support, and it is still the point: the single plant's output is being reallocated northward — away from Central America, toward Mexico and the United States — and Central American releases were suspended to do it. 🔵 DERIVED — this lab's synthesis of two sources: COPEG (suspension in the rest of Central America; new barrier at Tehuantepec) + Hutchins (COPEG's flies redeployed to the U.S.). Neither document contains this sentence. It is drawn from both and flagged as drawn.

🔴 contested · two men, one failure, two diagnoses

Miller vs USDA. Show both. Resolve neither.

They agree the front is not holding. They disagree completely about why — and this lab does not get to pick, because it is not qualified to and because picking is how it got in trouble.

The questionMILLER — Texas Ag Commissioner, 23 JunUSDA — Chief Scientist, 25 Jun
Did sterile flies alone ever eradicate the screwworm? “The lesson is simple: USDA did not eradicate the New World screwworm with sterile flies alone. It eradicated the screwworm with a coordinated strategy that combined sterile flies with adult suppression technologies such as SWASS.” (p.1) This is not factually true. In 1954, USDA's pilot test of the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) successfully eradicated NWS from the island of Curaçao… using only the SIT method… leading to complete elimination in that area by 1959 and a declaration that the continental United States was free of indigenous NWS in 1966… For chronological reference, the legacy SWASS technique was not developed until the 1970's. (p.1)
Is chemical suppression deployable now? Two separate actions, and this page fused them for three versions.

(1) Texas. “the Texas Department of Agriculture has requested seven EPA Section 18 Emergency Use Authorizations, four involving organophosphate products. All seven were approved by EPA. 🟢 Miller p.2 — verbatim Miller does not say what any of the seven were for.

(2) APHIS — a federal action, not one of Texas's seven. Most notably, USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS)—the very agency leading the federal response to the New World screwworm outbreak—requested and received a Section 18 emergency exemption for coumaphos, an organophosphate, to directly treat screwworm infestations in livestock.” 🟢 Miller p.2 — verbatim

Until this correction the page wrote “seven… requested by Texas — including one for coumaphos,” folding a federal request into a state count. The seven are Texas's. The coumaphos exemption is APHIS's own, and that is the entire force of Miller's argument — the agency refusing the chemistry already asked for it.

Conclusion: “there appears to be no meaningful regulatory barrier.” (p.2)
Severs the analogy: “A Section 18 emergency use permit to directly treat an animal with an organophosphate (OP) is dramatically different than a Section 18 emergency use permit to broadcast an OP across the state of Texas. (p.2) Then names three statutory gates: dietary assessment, OP cumulative risk assessment, full Endangered Species Act consultation.
Would it help? “adult suppression was not an alternative to sterile flies — it was a critical precursor to their success. SWASS reduced the reproductive population, and SIT finished the job.” (p.3) the sterile flies will be equally suppressed and the efficacy of SIT will be reduced if legacy SWASS and SIT are used simultaneously… using legacy SWASS in Texas at this point would slow the eradication process. (p.2) — i.e. it is too late; the flies are already flying.
Is it working? “By the end of June 2026, USDA will have released nearly eight billion sterile flies into Mexico. Yet approximately 1,950 active screwworm cases remain — the highest number reported since the current outbreak began.” (p.2) Does not answer the eight billion. Does not answer the 1,950. Does not answer the claim that the strategy is failing. Answers instead with NovoFly, a “modern” SWASS in development, and AI-targeted drop zones.

⚪ Miller's two numbers are Miller's. An advocacy letter from a state official is not a data source, USDA declined to confirm either figure when given the direct opportunity, and SENASICA publishes no active-case series at all (Tab II). They are printed as things he said. They are not promoted.

The sharpest thing in the exchange: Miller says the strategy is wrong. USDA says the strategy is right and under-supplied. They agree the outbreak is not being contained. They do not agree on why, and this lab does not pick.

And in the act of refusing Miller, USDA grants him his premise: “SWASS… was temporarily deployed in Texas and other States during the earliest phases of that eradication campaign while fly production was ramping up. The last time fly production was short, USDA reached for chemistry. It says so itself, in the sentence where it says it will not do it again.
what the wall was worth

The barrier was saving American ranchers $1.3 billion a year.

$1.3B
annual saving to US producers — COPEG's own figure
$1.2B
Mexico
$647M
Central America
$13.3M
Panama

🟢 COPEG 2024 programme infographic — “AHORROS anuales para productores: Estados Unidos $1,300,000,000” The old “$2.3B/yr” figure this page carried is withdrawn. It reconciles to nothing COPEG publishes, and its origin is unknown. It was flagged ⚪ unverified at the time and the flag did its job: the number was wrong by a billion dollars.

And a second, older, smaller federal estimate, printed because it does not flatter: the FAO figures quoted in Mexico's 2021 economic study put the annual benefit of eradication at US$796M for the United States, $292M for Mexico, $77.9M for Central America. 🔴 two sourced savings figures, two bodies, two vintages — $1.3B (COPEG, 2024) vs $796M (FAO, via 206212, p.9). We print both.

COPEG runs on 412 staff across 25 work centres — eighteen of them in the Darién — plus 160 vigilantes honorarios, unpaid volunteers who are, in COPEG's own words, “los OJOS y OÍDOS del Programa” — the eyes and ears of the programme. 🟢 COPEG 2024 A billion dollars a year of American cattle was being protected, in part, by a hundred and sixty volunteers in the Panamanian jungle.

the closer

The fly goes where the wound is.

It did not cross the border. It crossed a continent, one open wound at a time — a navel, a wire cut, an ear tag, a fight — and the only thing on that whole route that ever stopped at the Rio Grande was the paperwork. The paperwork works. It is doing exactly what it was drafted to do, and it is measured in the fly's own reproductive cycle.

What is not working is upstream of all of it, and USDA has said so in writing: there is one plant, it is in Panama, and its flies have been redeployed north. How many flies would it take to hold everything? No government has ever published the number. Not USDA, not COPEG, not SENASICA. Mexico's own emergency plan comes closest, and what it actually says is that the quantity requested will depend on the needs of the Campaign and the capacity of the Panama plant — it names the need, and then declines to put a figure on it. 🟢 Plan de Emergencia p.36

One number does exist, and this page missed it for three versions: the peer-reviewed literature costed a weekly requirement of 50 million insects — at COPEG, in 2016, to eradicate the fly from Cuba. 🟢 Concha 2016, printed p.8 of 13 🟡 a 2016 cost model, scoped to Cuba — not a requirement for this front It is a tenth of the number this page once drew on its own chart. Pacora, by itself, publishes roughly twice it.

Which is the finding, and it is not the one this lab went looking for. The requirement was never 500 million. The one requirement anybody ever costed was smaller than what a single plant already makes — and the barrier broke anyway. It was never a capacity story. This lab spent three versions building a chart against a number it invented, then a fourth version proudly deleting the chart — and all four were answering a question the record does not ask. The Chief Scientist of the United States Department of Agriculture had already conceded the argument in a letter, for free, and the letter is upstairs.

🚩 before you trust anything above — read this

This lab has now been wrong twenty-one times — and twelve of them were found in the rebuilds that were written to fix the other nine.

Twenty-one claims shipped under a 🟢 sourced flag and turned out to be wrong. Most of them ran in the same direction — making the federal response look more broken than it actually is. One ran the other way. One flattered not the argument but the lab's own rigour. And one was neither: a page number, printed seven times, pointing at a page the sentence is not on.

And two of the twenty-one are worse than the rest, because they were already found. The fifth cold gate caught them, printed them on its fail list, and named them in plain language. Then the repair brief written to fix that list left them out — and the repair shipped without them, twice. A gate that catches an error and a fix that drops it is not a system that works. It is a system that has learned to file.

I built a chart against a 500-million-a-week target that no government has ever published. I got the production number wrong in both directions, six hours apart. I said a factory was demolished when the record only says it closed. I invented a milestone at Moore Air Base out of a building that was already finished. I put a 2024 number in a box labelled now. Then, in the fix, I printed a quotation that does not exist in the paper I attributed it to — on a page whose entire subject is verification.

And the two newest errors are the most interesting things this lab has produced.

1 — A PHANTOM AXIS. I measured a crisis against a target nobody set. Then I deleted the target and declared that no requirement existed anywhere. One did. It was twelve lines above a sentence I was quoting, in a paper I had open: Concha 2016 costs the requirement at 50 million insects a weekone tenth of the number I invented, and roughly half of what Pacora already makes on its own. 🟡 Concha's figure is a 2016 cost model scoped to a Cuba campaign — not a requirement for this front The barrier's problem was never the size of the axis. It was that I kept drawing one.

2 — A FALSE CORRECTION. I retracted a statement that was true. An earlier round identified 206212.pdf as the 1972 screwworm treaty. I “corrected” it to an economic study and printed the correction as proof of my rigour. There are two different files named 206212.pdf. One is the economic study. The other really is the treaty. Correcting something that was right is a way of being wrong, and it had never once occurred to me until I did it.

3 — A FALSE ADDRESS, AND TWO CORRECTIONS THAT NEVER GOT MADE. The Concha sentences above are real, and verbatim, and I cited them to the wrong page seven times. They are on printed page 8. I said p.9 — and so did the gate report that found them, and so did the brief that told me to fix them. Three layers of checking, and not one of us opened the PDF and read the footer. A page that tells you to go and check it is only as good as the address it gives you.

And worse: two of the errors below were caught a full round ago, written down on a fail list, and then left out of the repair. One was a green flag certifying a calf's age, wound and survival from a file with no column for any of them. One was a total with thirteen human cases inside it that I was calling “animal cases” and comparing “like with like.” Somebody found them. Nobody fixed them. They shipped again. The list is not the fix.

And the thesis survived anyway. The US Chief Scientist conceded it in writing on 25 June 2026, in a letter I could have simply quoted. I never needed the exaggerations. That is the lesson, and it has now cost me the page six times over.

The full audit — every error, every revocation, every document, and what each round of primary sources broke — is in About & Sources. Read it before you believe me.

about this lab

What this is, and how it got here.

This page began as a question a rancher would ask: screwworms in Texas — how did they get across? It then spent three rebuilds asking a different question, badly, and this version puts it back.

Everything below this line is the audit trail. It is not in the body of the lab, because a reader who wants to learn about the screwworm should not have to wade through my mistakes to do it. But it is not hidden either, and the closer sends you here. A lab that has been wrong twenty-one times owes you the list.

Real — not mine

  • Every case count, wound table, species table and state table (SENASICA / APHIS).
  • Every quotation, Spanish and English, verbatim from a named document with a page number.
  • The APHIS-SENASICA import protocol in its entirety — every term in Tab IV.
  • The Hutchins concession and the entire Miller–USDA exchange.
  • The 1976 Tuxtla capacity rating; the 2003 fertile-fly release; the 2006 Pacora replacement.
  • COPEG's savings, staffing and 2024 telemetry figures.

Mine — this lab's own work, flagged 🔵

  • The county roll-up and the Rio Grande count from the 35-row APHIS ledger.
  • Sheep + goats = 14/35 = 40%. Crockett = 11/35 = 31%.
  • The husbandry group: 546 + 474 + 204 + 132 = 1,356.
  • The check that all three SENASICA tables sum to 16,489.
  • ~97 km/month front speed, from three sourced pins.
  • 806,748,143 ÷ 212 flights ≈ 3.8M flies per flight.
  • The reading of “3 wildlife cases” as a surveillance artifact — comment, labelled as comment.
  • The scale check between Pacora's published ~100M/wk and Concha's costed 50M/wk requirement. Two documents, two purposes, ten years apart. It is a comparison, not an equation, and it is not drawn on any chart.
the audit trail · every error, in order

Twenty-one errors. Most ran the same way. Three invented new ways to be wrong — and two were caught, written down, and then dropped by the repair.

🚩 CLAUDEDEV v1.2 — awarded twice, revoked twice, and still not re-awarded

This page passed the verification gate and was tagged CLAUDEDEV v1.2. The gate was run again, cold, and it failed. The page was repaired and re-tagged. Federal primary sources then arrived and it failed again — on five more claims, including one that had been “corrected” an hour earlier. A fourth cold gate failed it a third time, on the biggest number on the page.

A fifth cold gate then failed the rebuild that fixed all of that — on six further defects, including a quotation that does not exist in the paper it is attributed to and a correction that retracted a true statement. Those six are errors 10–15 below.

A sixth cold gate then failed the repair of that. It found that the fix had introduced a false page number, printed seven times, on the keystone quotation the whole rebuild now turns on — and, worse, that two items from the fifth gate's own itemized fail list had never been repaired at all. They were caught, written down, and then left out of the brief that was supposed to carry them forward. Those are errors 16–21. This page has now been failed by six consecutive cold gates.

The tag is revoked and stays revoked. It was not re-awarded by the hands that did this rebuild, or by the hands that did this repair, and it will not be. It is to be re-gated cold, by someone else, against the documents — which are listed below, with their page numbers, precisely so that a stranger can check me.

A page that only ever errs in the direction of its own argument does not have a data problem. It has a wanting problem. And a page that corrects a true statement in order to look rigorous has a second one. This is what both look like when you print them.

#What the page saidWhat the document saidDirection of the error
1 “~500M sterile flies/wk — the exact figure USDA now names as the requirement.” A red line. A −400M deficit. “20% of need.” No government publishes any such requirement. Not USDA, not SENASICA, not COPEG, not Mexico's Plan de Emergencia — which says the quantity depends on “las necesidades de la Campaña en México y la capacidad de producción de la planta de Panamá” and then names no figure. The only “500 millones” in the entire two-nation corpus is a 1976 single-plant capacity rating. The one costed weekly requirement anywhere in the record is Concha 2016's 50 million — see error 11. A 500M denominator turns a 100M present into “20% of need.” Maximally broken — and the real costed figure is one tenth of it.
2 “~500M/wk — the same amount used to erase screwworm from the US.” False. 500M is a Mexican plant's 1976 rating. US eradication is credited to Mission, Texas. The page contradicted itself by a factor of 3.3 inside a single tab. Inflates the historical benchmark.
3 “Tuxtla Gutiérrez · DEMOLISHED” — in the headline, the ledger and the chart. USDA lists “Tuxtla, Mexico · Current Status: Operational — a permanent 100M/wk dispersal facility since April 2025. No document anywhere uses the word demolished. The 1976 production plant closed. The town came back in a different job. “Demolished” is a word doing rhetorical work the evidence never paid for.
4 “Moore Air Base · 100M/wk by Nov 2027.” USDA lists Moore twice, as two buildings. The dispersal facility is “Construction is complete” and operational. The production facility is 300M projected, with no date at all. The milestone was invented by reading a finished dispersal building as a production schedule. Production/dispersal confusion — the error that has broken this page three separate times.
5 The production anchor: 128M/wk → corrected to ~98M/wk six hours later. Wrong in both directions. 128M mixed a pupae surge ceiling with a rate. The “correction” to 98M used COPEG's Q1-2024 telemetry in a slot labelled now. USDA's current figure, in flies, present tense: ~100M. A stale primary source is still stale. Both errors made the present look smaller.
6 “NovoFly — gene-drive multiplier, pending EPA, ~2× assumed.” Wrong three ways. It is a male-only strain, not a gene drive. The 2× is USDA's own word (“doubling availability of sterile males”), not this lab's assumption. And USDA names no EPA gate anywhere in four pages — it says NovoFly is already approved for field trials in Panama and for immediate release in Texas. Invented a statutory blocker that USDA does not name. More broken than the record.
7 “Metapa · 28M → 100M/wk” 🟢 USDA says “an additional 60–100 million” — a range, which stays a range. The 28M appears in no USDA source and was a load-bearing input to the anchor above. Understates the build.
8 “$2.3B/yr — what the barrier was saving US producers.” COPEG's own infographic says $1,300,000,000. The $2.3B reconciles to nothing COPEG publishes. Origin unknown. Withdrawn. Inflates the stakes by a billion dollars.
9 “Mar 2024 · Nicaragua · front arrives” 🟢 COPEG: In December 2023, the first case was detected in Nicaragua.” Three months late, under a green flag — and the error made the wave look slower and the barrier look like it held longer than it did. Flatters the page's own timeline.

Errors 10–15 — found in the rebuild that was written to fix errors 1–9

The nine above were found by gates one through four. The six below were found by the fifth cold gate, reading the same documents again, after the page had already been declared repaired. Two of them are error classes this project had never seen.

#What the page saidWhat the document saidDirection of the error
10 Concha 2016 puts the plant's maximum at approximately 100 million insects per week” — printed inside quotation marks. THAT STRING IS NOT IN THE PAPER. Concha, printed p.8 of 13, reads: “…the relative maximal production capacity of the mass-rearing facility, which is currently estimated at 100 million insects per week. The word approximately was carried in from a different sentence twelve lines above — the one about 50 million. A FABRICATED QUOTATION, on a page about verification. The worst defect available here, and it was committed in the act of cleaning up.
11 “Every sterile-fly figure in the entire two-nation corpus is a capacity or a release rate. There is not one requirement in it.” — sold with a stated nine-document, two-language search for required / se requiere / meta. FALSE, against a paper this page cites, quotes twice and stands on. Concha 2016, printed p.8 of 13: “the mass production of insects required at the COPEG facility is estimated at approximately 50 million insects per week — for a Cuba eradication. It sits twelve lines above the sentence the page did quote. The search cannot have been run, or its hit was not reported. (The narrow claim — no government has published a required weekly figure for this front — stands, and is verified.) THE PHANTOM AXIS — A NEW CLASS. The lab measured a crisis against a target nobody set; then, having deleted the target, declared the absence universal because “no number exists anywhere” indicts harder than “the literature costed one and no government has.” The real costed figure is a tenth of the invented one — and one plant already makes twice it. Tenth time in the same direction.
12 Both Salud bulletins print their cut-off on every table: fecha de corte 04 de abril de 2026.” — asserted twice, including here in the audit trail. Informe No. 2 prints “fecha de corte 01 de febrero” on every table. Only No. 4 prints 04 de abril. The page's own source list said “published February 2026” — so the page contradicted itself. One document's date, asserted of two — inside the passage whose whole job is to prove this page's source discipline. (The refusal of the June rows survives, and survives harder: April is still the later of the two cut-offs.)
13 The Plan de Emergencia “is not a plan to meet a need… the quantity is whatever Panama can make…” — and says so “in as many words.” It does not say that in as many words. p.36: “dependerán de las necesidades de la Campaña en México y la capacidad de producción de la planta de Panamá.” Need AND capacity. Both. The page translated the conjunction correctly one paragraph earlier and then glossed away half of it. Deleted half a conjunction, then indicted the document for the half it deleted. The true claim — the plan names no quantity — was sitting right there and needed no help.
14 No federal document in this lab's folder carries the Florida Keys figures” — so the 2016–17 Keys outbreak was demoted to 🟡 press. FALSE. the files/206212.pdf, pp.7–8, carries the entire event: confirmed 30 Sep 2016; a Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) at Big Pine Key; 143 susceptible animals; a second focus, a dog in Miami-Dade; sterile pupae released from 11 Oct 2016; closed 23 Mar 2017; “la primera detección… en más de 30 años.” Now promoted to 🟢 and sourced properly in Tabs I and II. ← THIS ONE RUNS AGAINST THE PAGE. It restores a real American incursion the page had shelved as unsourceable, and it independently confirms the lab's own best line — it was found in a deer. It is still a false statement about this page's own evidence base, made four pages away from the lab's most-quoted sentence. It goes on the record precisely because it costs us.
15 “An earlier round of this project identified 206212.pdf as the 1972 termination treaty. That identification was wrong. It is an economic study.” — printed in this audit trail as evidence of rigour. THE EARLIER ROUND WAS RIGHT. THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT FILES NAMED 206212.pdf.

sources/206212.pdf3 pages, md5 0d2e2137…IS the “Agreement… Relating to the Termination of the 1972 Agreement… to Eradicate Screwworms”, terminating 26 Sep 2012, dissolving COMEXA, signed by Edward Avalos, Under Secretary, USDA. A treaty instrument.

sources/the files/206212.pdf22 pages, md5 a48285e1… — is the 2021 economic-impact study. Both files were opened and page-counted for this correction.
A FALSE CORRECTION — A NEW CLASS, AND THE STRANGEST ENTRY ON THIS LIST. The lab retracted a true statement because two files shared a name, and then printed the retraction as proof of its own discipline. It flattered not the argument, but the lab's rigour. No number breaks — every 206212 citation on this page (pp.5, 6, 7–8, 9) resolves against the 22-page study, and the treaty independently confirms the 26 Sep 2012 date the page prints. But the correction was wrong, and the audit trail is this page's warrant. Correcting something that was right had never occurred to anyone here as a way of being wrong. It is now.

Errors 16–21 — found by the sixth cold gate, and by the repair that answered it

The sixth gate read the page against the documents again. It found one defect that the fifth gate's own fix had introduced — and it found that two items on the fifth gate's own itemized fail list had never been repaired at all. They had been dropped by the repair brief that was supposed to carry them forward. They are repaired here, and the fact that they went two rounds unrepaired is itself part of the record.

#What the page saidWhat the document saidDirection of the error
16 Concha 2016 cited to p.9 — on the 50M quotation, the 100M quotation, the closer, twice in this audit trail and twice in the source list. Seven times. BOTH SENTENCES ARE ON PRINTED PAGE 8. The paper carries its folio in the footer of every page: “Concha et al. BMC Biology (2016) 14:72 — Page 8 of 13.” The 50-million requirement and the 100-million ceiling sit in the same column, twelve lines apart, on p.8. Printed p.9 begins “quality controls to assess a strain for mass rearing…” and contains neither sentence. (The 16M cost sentence is on printed p.7.) The quotations are verbatim. The pointer was false. A FALSE POINTER, AND IT WENT THROUGH THREE LAYERS. It changes no number and no claim. But this page's own published standard is “a named document, a named agency, a date, and a sentence that can be quoted” — and a reader who did what this page asks, and turned to p.9, would not have found the sentence.

It was wrong in the gate report that found the quotation. It was wrong in the repair brief that ordered the fix. It was wrong on the page. Three layers, and not one of them opened the PDF and looked at the folio. The gate is not the source. The brief is not the source. The footer of the page is the source.
17 2,214 cumulative animal cases” — and the 2,214 → 16,489 comparison sold as “the same unit… comparing like with like.” Flagged by the FIFTH gate. Not repaired. Flagged again by the sixth. THE 2,214 IS A MIXED TOTAL. THIRTEEN OF THEM ARE HUMANS. AVANCE 04 itemises it: “1,797 en bovinos, 131 en equinos, 131 en caninos, 87 en porcinos, 43 en ovinos, 6 en caprinos, 13 en humanos, 2 en felinos, 1 en búfalo de agua y 1 en un ave silvestre.” AVANCE 11's 16,489 species table has no human row. One point counts people; the other does not. It is not like with like, and the phrase is deleted.

And the bulletin's own arithmetic does not close: those ten rows sum to 2,212, two short of the 2,214 it states. So the animal-only figure is 2,201 (total − humans) or 2,199 (itemised rows). This page prints the discrepancy rather than picking one.
THE UNIT TRAP — FOR THE FOURTH TIME — COMMITTED IN THE SENTENCE CLAIMING UNIT PURITY. The contamination is 0.6% and does not move the 7.4×. That is not the point. This is the tab whose entire argument is that a number with the wrong unit is not a number — and it declared two mismatched denominators identical, in bold, while congratulating itself on rigour. Named as a blocker by the fifth gate and left on the page through two repairs.
18 🟢 “APHIS ledger, row 1” — flown over “A three-week-old beef calf, umbilical wound. It survived. Flagged by the FIFTH gate. Not repaired. THE LEDGER HAS EIGHT FIELDS AND NOT ONE OF THEM IS AGE, WOUND, OR OUTCOME. They are: Animal ID · Confirmed Date · County · State · Case Type · Animal Type · Species · Status. The Zavala row supports Zavala · Texas · 6/3/2026 · Domestic · Cattle · Inactiveand nothing more. The calf's age, its umbilical wound and its survival are press-derived and were flying a federal green flag.

AND THE ROW NUMBER WAS WRONG TOO. The file is sorted newest-first: row 1 is Crockett, 10 Jul 2026, a goat, Active. The La Pryor calf is row 35 — the last row. Both gate reports that caught this error asserted that “row 1” was the Zavala calf. Neither of them counted the rows.
A FALSE GREEN — THE ONE DEFECT THIS ENTIRE PROJECT EXISTS TO KILL. Four fields were made to certify seven facts. This is ERR6 — a verdict with no quote attached — wearing the flag that means “quotable.” It is the exact failure the flag system was built to make impossible, it sat on the page for two rounds after being named, and the correction of it also had to correct the two gates that named it.
19 The Darién barrier is being stripped to defend Texas.” Bolded. Unflagged. NEITHER DOCUMENT CONTAINS THAT SENTENCE. COPEG says releases were suspended “in the rest of Central America… with the objective of establishing a biological barrier in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec — not the Darién, and not Texas. Hutchins is the one who says the flies were “redeployed… to the U.S.” The page welded the two and swapped in the more evocative place-name at each end. TWO SOURCES → ONE STRONGER SENTENCE, WITH NO FLAG ON IT. A Gate-4 violation: no combining multiple findings into one claim. The synthesis is defensible — the output is being reallocated north — so it stays, rewritten to what the two documents jointly support and flagged 🔵 DERIVED.
20 “…the answer is not in fly season, and treat the wound when you do.’ Mexico's own emergency plan says so” — under a single 🟢. Flagged by the fifth gate. THE PLAN SAYS NO SUCH THING. It prescribes the powder — “polvo curativo (sobre con 5 gramos de coumafos al 5%)…” — and that quotation is verbatim and stands. But it was searched for época, temporada and estacional, and it contains no seasonal-scheduling guidance of any kind. The 🟢 covered the powder. It never covered the calendar. A GREEN FLAG SPREAD ACROSS TWO CLAIMS WHEN IT ONLY EVER COVERED ONE. The advice may be perfectly good. It is not in the document, so it does not get the document's flag. It is now ⚪, in the same breath as the claim.
21 “Seven EPA Section 18 emergency authorisations requested by Texasincluding one for coumaphos.” Flagged by the fifth gate. TWO DIFFERENT REQUESTERS. THE COUMAPHOS EXEMPTION IS NOT ONE OF TEXAS'S SEVEN. Miller, p.2: “the Texas Department of Agriculture has requested seven… All seven were approved by EPA. Most notably, USDA's… (APHIS) — the very agency leading the federal response — requested and received a Section 18 emergency exemption for coumaphos.” The seven are the state's. The coumaphos exemption is the federal agency's own. A FEDERAL ACTION FOLDED INTO A STATE COUNT — AND IT BLUNTED MILLER'S OWN ARGUMENT. His point is that the very agency now refusing the chemistry has already asked EPA for it and been granted it. Fusing it into Texas's seven destroyed the one fact that made the paragraph sting. The page weakened a source it was quoting, by summarising it.

Also corrected in this pass, and named because they are the same species of defect: “First Mexican case in 33 years” carried 🟢 AVANCE 04the bulletin gives the date, not the interval; the 33 years is this lab's subtraction from the 1991 decree and is now 🔵. · AVANCE 11's 20-state table was cited to “pp.6–7”; all twenty rows are on p.6 (p.7 is the wound table). · The Salud bulletins print no page numbers at all, so every “p.5 / p.7 / p.9” on those rows is an index claim, not a folioevery value on them was checked to the digit and every value is exact, but the reader should know the page numbers are ours. 🔵

🚩 the sixth rule, applied to this page's own audit trail — a correction is a claim; check it like one

The gate that failed this page added a rule after the last round: a retraction is a claim, a downgrade is a claim, and every one of them gets verified against the source before it ships. This repair turned that rule on the table you have just read.

Every retraction, withdrawal, downgrade and promotion in this audit trail was re-checked against the document it names. Errors 1–9: each carries a quoted federal sentence, and each holds. Errors 10–13: each carries the string it says was misquoted, and each holds. Errors 14 and 15 (the Keys, and the two files named 206212.pdf): both re-verified — both files opened, both page-counted. The deletions (casos activos, the 45th parallel, Mission's “~150M/wk”, “against the protests of COPEG,” the 2022 breach figures) are all negative claimswe searched and it is not there — and each was searched again.

One false correction had already shipped on this page, and it is error 15. Hunting for a second one, this pass found no other retraction on this page that a document does not support. But it did find the shape of the same disease in a new place: errors 17 and 18 were correctly diagnosed by the fifth gate, printed on its fail list — and then dropped by the brief that was written to repair them, and shipped again. A correction that never gets made is not as loud as a correction that is wrong, and it is not much better. The list is not the fix. Somebody has to actually open the file.

🚩 the two new failure modes, named, because naming them is the only thing they are good for

THE PHANTOM AXIS. A lab picks a number nobody published, builds an instrument to measure the distance to it, and then argues about the distance. Deleting the number does not cure it — this page deleted the 500M and went right on believing the question was “how short are we?” The cure is to find out whether anyone ever set the target at all. When we finally looked: one paper had, it was 50M, and a single plant was already producing double that. The barrier broke anyway. It was never a capacity story.

THE FALSE CORRECTION. A lab that has been publicly wrong nine times develops an appetite for retracting things. That appetite is itself a bias, and it has a direction: it retracts whatever makes the lab look careful. Here it ate a true sentence, because two files had the same name and nobody checked the page count. The correction gets checked against the document too. Every layer. Including this one.

Other things this rebuild deleted, withdrew, or downgraded

ItemDisposition
The six-row Mexican “active case” series (1,145 / 492 / 733 / 1,689 / 2,024 / 1,953)DELETED. “Casos activos” appears in no SENASICA document. The bulletins publish only cumulative counts. These are numbers in a category the source system does not have — a category error, not a data gap. The old action item (“pull the raw SENASICA weekly reports”) was executed and came back empty. Replaced with two sourced cumulative points.
“Mar-20 2026 — 204 human cases, 12 states”REFUSED. The bulletin's nearest figure is 229 across 12 states. A real document that lands near a number is not a document that contains it.
“295 YTD by Jun 16” · “Veracruz 69”REFUSED — and the reason was itself misquoted; see error 12. The two Salud bulletins print two different cut-offs on every table: Informe No. 2 prints “fecha de corte 01 de febrero; Informe No. 4 prints “fecha de corte 04 de abril de 2026.” The later of the two is April, and an April document cannot source a June row. The refusal stands; the sentence that justified it did not. (And in the bulletins the leading state is Chiapas — 120 to Veracruz's 14, 🔵 a factor of 8.6, not “nine”.)
“~1.25% field efficacy”WITHDRAWN. ⚠️ FALSE-FRIEND WARNING: the string 1.25 does appear in the 22-page 206212.pdf — twice, in Tabla 3, as a cost-benefit ratio for the years 2002 and 2010. It has nothing to do with sterile-male field efficacy. Searched across all fifteen sources. Found in none of them, in that meaning.
“against the protests of COPEG” (the 2012 closure)WITHDRAWN from the body. Single secondary source; COPEG's own institutional history does not carry it. It was the most rhetorically useful phrase on the page. That is precisely when a claim should be trusted least.
“Mission, TX — ~150M/wk” · “the 45th-parallel thermal limit (USDA)” · “~25/yr → 6,500+/yr” (2022 breach)DOWNGRADED. Each was flying a 🟢 with no named agency and no date. None can be quoted from any document in this lab's folder. They are now or 🟡 press, or gone.
The 2016–17 Florida Keys outbreakRE-PROMOTED to 🟢 — the downgrade was a mistake, and it was ours. This page said “no federal document in this lab's folder carries the Keys figures” and demoted the whole incursion to press. False: the files/206212.pdf pp.7–8 carries all of it — 30 Sep 2016, the Key deer at Big Pine Key, 143 susceptible animals, the Miami-Dade dog, sterile pupae from 11 Oct 2016, closure 23 Mar 2017, “más de 30 años.” See error 14. This correction runs against this page's interest and is the reason it is worth trusting the rest.
The 2003 Chiapas fertile-fly releaseADDED. The sterile-fly plant this lab spent three versions eulogising caused an outbreak in 12 municipalities in 2003 by releasing fertile flies (17.5M pesos in five months). It was sitting in the same PDF as the lab's best quotation, four pages later. It was omitted every time — and its omission ran in the page's preferred direction, like everything else.
SE 45 2025 = 517 casesPROMOTED to 🟢. An evidence ledger reported this figure as unsourceable. It is in AVANCE 11, p.2, verbatim“siendo la semana epidemiológica número 45 del 2025 la que presenta más casos (517)” — as an animal figure, which is why a search of the human bulletins missed it. The ledger was checked against the document, and the document won.
21 May 2013 — COMEXA extinction (DOF)PROMOTED from 🟡 verify vs DOF to 🟢. Carried a “verify” flag through four rounds. It is stated outright in 206212.pdf p.6: “el 21 de mayo de 2013 se publica en el DOF el AVISO mediante el cual se da a conocer la extinción de la COMEXA (DOF, 2013).” A federal study citing the DOF — not the DOF itself, and flagged as such.
the five rounds of primary sources, and what each one broke

Round 1 — COPEG, Concha 2016, the APHIS factsheets, the CSV. Broke the $2.3B and the Nicaragua date. Delivered the US detection ledger — which the lab hoped was the Mexican case series and was not, and which turned out to be far more useful: 35 named American animals, and they were not where the page said the front was.

Round 2 — screwworm.gov and the Miller–Hutchins letters. Broke five claims at once, including a correction made an hour earlier. Delivered the concession that is the thesis: the page had been trying to prove what USDA had already written down.

Round 3 — the six Mexican federal PDFs. Confirmed the 1976 quotation word for word — and, in the same document, contradicted the closure date, exposed the 2003 fertile-fly release, and established that the 500M requirement does not exist in Mexico either.

Round 4 — the cold gate. Read every document from scratch, with no memory of the page, and failed it on the one number the whole chart was built to fall short of. Its closing line: “If I had only done what I was told, I would have passed a page whose red line comes from nowhere. The instruction is not the source.”

Round 5 — the cold gate on the repair. Read all fifteen documents again, rendered the three image-only PDFs to images and read them by eye, recounted all 35 CSV rows and all 52 rows of the Spanish federal tables — and found the arithmetic flawless and the argument still overstated. It caught the fabricated Concha quotation, the 50-million requirement sitting twelve lines above it, the February bulletin, the deleted conjunction, the Keys document the page said it did not have, and the second file named 206212.pdf. Its finding, and it is the finding of this whole lab: “The finding does not need the exaggeration. It has never needed the exaggeration.” Round 5 also overruled the brief that commissioned it — the brief repeated the false 206212 correction, and the documents won. Every layer gets checked. Including the instruction.

Round 6 — the cold gate on the repair of the repair, and then the repair of that. It opened Concha to the folio in the footer — something no previous round had done — and found the keystone quotation cited to the wrong page, seven times, by the page, by the gate that found the quotation, and by the brief that ordered the fix. It counted the eight fields in the APHIS CSV and found a green flag certifying three facts the file has no columns for. It summed AVANCE 04's species breakdown by hand and found thirteen humans inside a total this page was calling “animal cases”and found that the bulletin's own rows sum to 2,212, not 2,214. And it found that two of those defects had been caught a full round earlier, printed on a fail list, and then quietly dropped by the brief that was supposed to repair them. Its finding: “A gate that catches an error and a fix that drops it is not a system that works.”

the fifteen sources · full citations

Everything this page stands on.

United States — federal, publicly linkable

  • USDA APHIS — “Sterile Fly Production and Dispersal Facilities,” Screwworm.gov. Last modified 11 June 2026. The facility register: Pacora, Metapa, Moore (production); Tuxtla, Tampico, Moore (dispersal). aphis.usda.govthe single most load-bearing document in Tab III.
  • USDA APHIS — New World Screwworm US case ledger (ExportToCSV, exported 10 Jul 2026). 35 confirmed animal cases, 3 Jun – 10 Jul 2026. UTF-16, tab-separated despite the name. The whole of Tab I.
    🚩 the eight fields — and what a 🟢 on this file can and cannot certify

    The file has exactly eight named fields, and this is all of them: 1. Animal ID · 2. Confirmed Date · 3. County · 4. State · 5. Case Type · 6. Animal Type · 7. Species · 8. Status. (A ninth column exists in the export and is empty in all 35 rows.)

    There is no age field. No wound field. No outcome field. No origin field. No location finer than the county. A 🟢 citing this ledger can certify a county, a date, a species, a case type and an active/inactive status. It cannot certify anything else, and on this page it was doing exactly that.

    Two things this correction found: (1) a 🟢 “APHIS ledger, row 1” was flying over the first calf's age, its umbilical wound, and whether it survived — three facts in a file with no field for any of them. That is a verdict with no quote behind it, wearing a green flag. It is corrected in Tab I. (2) And the flag was wrong even about the row: the file is sorted newest-first, so row 1 is Crockett, 10 Jul 2026, a goat, Active. The La Pryor calf is the last row, row 35. Both gate reports that caught the first error stated that row 1 was the Zavala calf. It is not. The row number was never checked against the file — not by the page, and not by the gates. It is checked now.

  • Scott H. Hutchins, Ph.D. (Under Secretary for Research, Education & Economics; USDA Chief Scientist) → Commissioner Sid Miller, 25 June 2026. 4 pp., cc: Rollins, Wiles, Schmoyer (Director, APHIS NWS Directorate). The concession, NovoFly, and USDA's side of the SWASS dispute.
  • Sid Miller (Texas Commissioner of Agriculture) → Under Secretary Hutchins, 23 June 2026. 4 pp. The SWASS request; the eight-billion and 1,950 figures, both refused as sources by this lab.
  • APHIS-SENASICA New World Screwworm Protocol for the Importation of Ruminants from Mexico to the United States. Bilateral, bilingual, 9 pp., December 2024. The whole of Tab IV.
  • USDA APHIS, “Eradicating New World Screwworm with Sterile Insect Technique,” publication APHIS-25-031, April 2025.
  • USDA APHIS, “Sterile Fly Release Methods for Controlling Screwworm,” publication APHIS-26-023, June 2026. Source of the fluorescent-dye marking of sterile pupae, and of “aerial is the default.”

Panama — COPEG

  • COPEG — “History,” copeg.org/en/historia. The commission's own dated timeline: 1966 · 1994 · 2006 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025. copeg.org
  • COPEG — Programa del Gusano Barrenador del Ganado, 2024 programme infographic (Spanish). Savings by country; 80M pupae/wk; 70.5M flies released/wk; 806,748,143 flies in Q1 2024 over 212 flights; 412 staff; 25 work centres; 160 vigilantes honorarios.

Peer-reviewed

  • Concha, C., Palavesam, A., Guerrero, F.D., Sagel, A., Li, F., Osborne, J.A., Hernandez, Y., Pardo, T., Quintero, G., Vasquez, M., Keller, G.P., Phillips, P.L., Welch, J.B., McMillan, W.O., Skoda, S.R. & Scott, M.J. (2016). “A transgenic male-only strain of the New World screwworm for an improved control program using the sterile insect technique.” BMC Biology 14:72. doi:10.1186/s12915-016-0296-8 (Open Access). Work performed inside the COPEG biosecure facility. Source of the 16M cost-estimate sentence (printed p.7), the 100M ceiling (printed p.8), the $1.5M irradiator, and the male-only lever — a decade before NovoFly. And — found only at the fifth cold gate — the source of the only costed weekly requirement in this entire corpus: “the mass production of insects required at the COPEG facility is estimated at approximately 50 million insects per week (printed p.8 of 13), for an eradication campaign in Cuba. Both load-bearing sentences sit in the same column of printed page 8, twelve lines apart. This page cited them to p.9 in seven places — and so did the gate report that found them, and so did the brief that commissioned the fix. Three layers, and nobody opened the PDF to the folio until the sixth gate. See error 16. 🟡 a 2016 peer-reviewed cost model, not a government requirement, and not scoped to this front — printed as a fact, refused as a target This page quoted the sentence twelve lines below it and declared that no requirement existed anywhere. See errors 10 and 11.

Mexico — federal. NOT publicly linkable: these are local PDFs.

Said plainly, because a source you cannot open is not a source you can check: the five Mexican federal documents below are files, not URLs. They were obtained as PDFs and read for this rebuild. Their titles, issuing bodies and dates are given in full so that a reader can go and find them at gob.mx/senasica or through the Secretaría de Salud's epidemiology bulletins.

  • AVANCE 11 — Boletín Informativo de la CPA, Gusano Barrenador del Ganado. SENASICA / Comisión México-Americana (CPA), MARZO 2026, 40 pp., data cut 28 Feb 2026. Directorio: Berdegúé (Sec.), Calderón Elizalde (SENASICA), Ayala Borunda (DGSA), García López (CPA). The 16,489; the 21-row wound table (p.7); the species table (p.2); the 20-state table (p.6); the SE-45 peak of 517; the ~70M/wk release rate (p.35); the first Tamaulipas case. All of Tab II.
  • AVANCE 04 — Boletín Informativo de la CPA, GBG. SENASICA / CPA, 15 June 2025, 9 pp. First Mexican case (Catazajá, 21 Nov 2024); 2,214 cumulative cases; SE-22 peak of 192.
  • Plan de Emergencia para hacer frente a la presencia de Gusano Barrenador del Ganado. SENASICA / DGSA / CPA, Ciudad de México, 2024, 44 pp. Signed: Villalobos Arámbula, Calderón Elizalde, Gay Gutiérrez, García López. Written before the first case. Pacora at 90M/wk (p.35); Metapa as a pupae-conditioning centre (p.36); and the sentence that names both the Campaign's needs and Panama's capacity, and then puts a figure on neither (p.36). It contains no production target, no timeline and no budget. 🟡 this page misread that sentence for three versions — see error 13
  • Economic-impact study of the GBG — local file sources/the files/206212.pdf, 22 pages, SADER/SENASICA-family, c. January 2021. Resumen ejecutivo · Antecedentes · Panorama internacional · Panorama nacional · Análisis del impacto socioeconómico. The 1976 Tuxtla plant (p.5); the Mission TX closure, Jan 1981 (p.5); 286,750 cases 1972–1990 (p.5); the 1991 decree (p.5); Pacora replacing Chiapas in 2006 (p.6); the treaty's end and COMEXA's DOF extinction (p.6); the 2016–17 Florida Keys outbreak, Key deer included (pp.7–8); the 2003 fertile-fly release (p.9); the FAO benefit figures (p.9).
  • Agreement between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the United Mexican States Relating to the Termination of the 1972 Agreement… to Eradicate Screwworms. — local file sources/206212.pdf, 3 pages, ref. 2012–0160. Signed for the United States by Edward Avalos, Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs, USDA. Terminates the 1972 Screwworm Agreement on 26 September 2012 and dissolves COMEXA. A treaty instrument. It independently corroborates the 26 Sep 2012 date this page prints from the economic study.
    🚩 the false correction — error 15

    TWO DIFFERENT FILES IN THIS FOLDER ARE NAMED 206212.pdf. One (3 pp.) is the treaty directly above. One (22 pp.) is the economic study directly above that. An earlier round of this project identified 206212.pdf as the termination treaty. This page declared that identification WRONG and printed the retraction as evidence of its own rigour. The earlier round was right. It was reading the other file. This page retracted a true statement, and that retraction is hereby retracted. A false correction is its own class of error — it does not flatter the argument, it flatters the corrector — and it is now on this record because it had never once occurred to us that it could happen.

  • Informe mensual No. 2 · Semana epidemiológica 4 de 2026 — “Situación actual de Miasis por C. hominivorax, México.” Secretaría de Salud / Dirección General de Epidemiología, published February 2026, 15 pp. Human cases only. 25 probable / 17 confirmed (68%), p.5. Data cut-off printed on every table: “fecha de corte 01 de febrero.” 🟢 read off the tables — and it is not the April date this page twice claimed both bulletins carried. See error 12.
  • Informe mensual No. 4 · Semana epidemiológica 13 de 2026. Secretaría de Salud / DGE, published April 2026, 15 pp. Data cut-off printed on every table: fecha de corte 04 de abril de 2026. 189 probable / 112 confirmed (59%), p.5; 76% hospitalised; 54% no animal contact; 72% male; Chiapas 120 of 229.
⚠️ two things about the Mexican sources a reader must know

1. Two of the five “SENASICA” files are not SENASICA. The Informe mensual bulletins are Secretaría de Salud epidemiology reports covering human myiasis. Different agency, different denominator, different cut-off. This lab mixed them up for three versions. They are now labelled everywhere they appear.

2. Salud revises its own series. The 2025 human count was 169 probable in the February bulletin and 164 probable in the April one. This page carries the later figure and tells you it was revised. A series that gets revised is a series that is being maintained. That is a good sign, and it is also a warning against quoting any single edition as final.

the standard this page is held to

The flags, and what they mean.

🟢 sourcedA named document, a named agency, a date, and a sentence that can be quoted. If you cannot quote it, it is not green.
🔵 derivedThis lab's own arithmetic, from sourced inputs, with the working shown so you can check it.
🟡 single / pressOne source, or a source that is not the agency itself. Held on a short leash. Never promoted for keeping good company.
🔴 contestedTwo credible sources disagree. Both are printed. Neither is resolved. This lab does not adjudicate between two governments.
⚪ unverifiedWe looked and could not find it. It stays on the page, flagged, or it comes off the page. It never gets quietly promoted, and it never gets quietly deleted. Both of those are the same crime: making a decision nobody made.
Certainty must never increase with distance from the source. A claim gets less sure as it travels from the document to the page — never more. If the page is more confident than the paper, something was invented in transit. Most of this lab's twenty-one errors were that same violation, over and over.

Three were not, and that is why they matter. One was a false statement that ran against this page's argument (the Florida Keys). One was a correction that corrected something true (the two files named 206212.pdf) — the compass cannot see that one; it runs the wrong way. And one was a page number. Concha's two sentences are verbatim, they are real, and this page sent the reader to the wrong page to check them — seven times, and so did both gate reports, and so did the brief.

The compass measures how sure a claim is. It does not measure whether the address is right. A quotation can be perfect and still be uncheckable, if the folio is wrong — and a page that says “go and check me” is only as good as the address it gives you. Open the file. Count the pages. Read the footer.

If you find something wrong on this page — and the record above suggests you might — the builder wants to hear about it. The contact link is in the footer. Corrections get made, and they get credited.

Life Sciences · Invasion Front · Faculty
Kai Nakamura
Instructor · Invasive Species · the ‘Buffalo model’
The man who turned an ecological disaster into 17,000 pounds of fish a week — his Asian-carp kitchen is a working proof that the front line of an invasion is also a supply line if you’re willing to eat the problem. Screwworm crossing back into Texas, APHIS and SENASICA trading detection ledgers across a border: he reads it as logistics, not horror. Kai’s whole method is that you don’t win an invasion by wishing it gone; you win by understanding exactly how it moves, and getting there first.